Festive Charts GBPUSD , USDCHF, EURGBP AUDUSD, AUDJPY,

GBPUSD DAILY 

                                                     

Possible bull Trap in the GBPUSD if 1.6440 is not broken

GBPUSD 4hrs 27/12/2013
 Move to the Upside @ Resistance 1.6549 and tries to break Out

USDCHF4hrs          

 volatility may bring the CHF back to the rising trend line for a continuation for the move up towards 0.9020

27/12/2013 updated break of the rising trend line allows for the down side to prevail bounce up into wave  4 then possible wave 5 decline towards 0.8782

EURGBP 4hrs        

A confirmed 3rd wave rally above 0.8388 and break out outside the Poseidon trigger line will increase gain in the Eurgbp towards 0.84665

27/12/2013 updated EURGBP

AUDUSD 4hrs        

Break above Monthly  resistance 0.8927 will cause a nice bounce in the overdue AUDUSD

AUDUSD 27122013 Updated 

AUDUSD Sideways  With possible upside corrective bias

US Session 27/12/2013 update Downside trend line triggered 

break of 0.8874 will confirm we are headed for possible further lows  0.8835 lows

AUDJPY4HRS   

If the YEN gains strength over the Christmas Period a wave iii Down after a failure to rise above 93.48 and a break below 92.63 will set up a test of the Lows @ 91.05 

      

AUDJPY 27122013 Updated Working out well with a small move up as predicted

Hope you had a Great Christmas!!! and Good Luck and have a  Happy New Year 

EUR/AUD

DAILY CHART ANALYSIS

The daily high held and respected the trend line setting up for two possible sell positions

• The first count has a possible sell to the first support structure at level 1.49373 to buy back up to retest the "DAILY" highs at level 1.55183.
• The alternative count: if the possible support structure is broken, then it may be looking to sell to lower support trend line at 1.4656 level to retest the structure level of 1.49373 to sell to the second support structure of 1.41387.

4HR CHART ANALYSIS

With the 4hr's forming a "HEAD&SHOULDERS", there's a possible buy up to the trend line at level 1.5492 for a sell down to test first level at 1.49373.

Usdcad Core Retail Sales

UsdCad

1. Core Retail Sales: Friday, 13:30. This indicator is considered the most important gauges of consumer spending. Core Retail Sales excludes automobile sales, which tend to be volatile and distort the release. The indicator has been weakening in recent readings, and posted an unimpressive figure of 0.0% in October, shy of the estimate of 0.2%. The estimate remains at 0.0% for the upcoming release.
2. Retail Sales: Friday, 13:30. Retail Sales posted a strong gain of 1.0%, a four-month high. This easily beat the estimate of 0.3%. The markets are anticipating another gain of 0.3% for the upcoming release.

USDCAD Hrly: 

EURUSD ELWAVE COUNT 1 HOUR

EURUSD ELWAVE  1 HOUR COUNT:

EURGBP 1hrly Elwave Count

EURGBP

EURUSD Christmas Week

EURUSD

T4x Outlook: : Long positions above 1.3624 with targets @ 1.36709 & 1.3810 in extension. above the Poseidon Medium line @ 1.3718 which would further increase the bullish view to challenge the highs @ 1.3815

T4x Substitute Outlook : Below 1.3625 look for further downside with 1.3525 & 1.3399 as targets.

T4x  opinion : the pair is facing a structural break @ 1.3708 back after a few days of sideways action.however we prefer to stay with the trend until 1.3424/1.3604 is broken 

EURCAD Trade OF the Day

Double Top identified 

Entry on the Pull back 1.45864-1.45793

Below 1.4574 Look for further down side 

T4X : Alternative above weekly pivot 1.4574 - 1.4595 look for a challenge of the double top @  1.4655

EURAUD and EURCAD

Daily             

4hr EURCAD

EURCAD Todays Trade

T4X Outlook: Short below 1.4619  support look for 1.4527

T4X: Substitute Outlook:  Long above 1.4619 , expect 1.4674  and 1.4696

Comment: Possible 4hr Market top on stochastic 

The Westpac Consumer Confidence 23.00                                             1.9%                    23.00

EUR/AUD

The Westpac Consumer Confidence 23.00                                             1.9%    23.00

The recent stabilization in AUDUSD is sending mixed signals as to whether it is a false rebound or the beginning of a slow consolidation. The RBA’s verbal attack on the Aussie has been instrumental in the decline of the last 4 weeks, but the central bank cannot continue to resort to verbal intervention alone when Aussie macro figures have shown bright spots in retail sales and building approvals. There is a difference between a currency being stubbornly strong with ample room on the downside and a currency down 8% with no prospects of rate cuts in the foreseeable future. 

T4X Currency Outlook

GBPUSD: Sideways 

T4X Outlook: Long positions above 1.6367 with targets @ 1.6414 & 1.644 in extension.
T4X: Substitute Outlook: Below 1.6342 look for further downside with 1.6292 & 1.6266 as targets.

T4X Opinion: the pair stands above its support as the RSI is supported by a rising trend line.


Audusd

T4X Outlook: Long positions above 0.9086  targets @ 0.9115 & 0.91.32 in extension.
T4X: Substitute Outlook: Below 0.9068  look for further downside with 0.9004 & 0.8980 as targets.

T4X Opinion: the pair stands below its weekly pivot @ 0.6086 RSI is  weak below 50 

USDCAD 4HR  

CA CAD Housing Starts s.a (YoY) (Nov) 2 192.2K 194.5K 198.2K

1HRLY 

         

                           AUDJPY


                                         Our preference: Long positions above 93.27 with targets @ 94.51 & 94.75 in extension.

                                          Alternative scenario: Below 93.27 look for further downside with 92.39 & 90.6 as targets.

                                          Comment: investors have to remain cautious since these levels may trigger profit taking.

Gold Daily

old was little changed but still ready to post a weekly slide early Friday, with all eyes focused on the upcoming release of US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data for November.

The most hectic day of the week has finally came to bring first-tier data from the world`s largest economy; NFP number, due to be released later Friday, offering bullion junkies the key that might unlock the doors on a possibly looming reduction of monetary stimulus by the Federal Reserve in its next meeting this month, which markets have been pricing in the past few months amid improving US economic data.

Spot Gold was up 0.53% at $1,231.85 an ounce as of 02:30 a.m. EST, compared with yesterday`s close at $1,225.23.

November NFP release from the US Labor Department is the most important release at the end of the year, as the Fed linked a tapering of its bullion-friendly stimulus to tangible rally in labor market, and so far, the jobs front had offered a quite relieving tone for the fourth quarter of the this year, which might relax the Fed to start reducing its $85 billion of monthly bond purchases.

Unfortunately, Fed Chief Ben S. Bernanke is not totally convinced to slow quantitative easing program following the strong October jobs report, even after recent data showed the economy added an average of 200 thousand jobs each in the last three months.

At 08:30 a.m. EST, the US employment report may show that economy added 185 thousand jobs to NFP in November, compared with October`s strong increase of 204 thousand. Correspondingly, the unemployment rate probably fell to 7.2% last month, a five-year low according to records.

Any NFP surprise will no doubt boost the case for stimulus tapering as early as this month. However, a soft report will most likely offset bets of December tapering into 2014.

Will US payrolls bolster the case for the Fed to start scaling back its quantitative easing? We`ll find out today! The upcoming trigger for the yellow metal is on the way!

Todays Trades EURCAD, EURGBP, USDCHF 02/12/2013

EUR/CAD

EUR/GBP

USD/CHF

GERMAN INFLATION HIGHER THAN EXPECTATIONS

 German inflation was higher than expected in November, in annual terms, owing to price rises in the services sector and despite another drop in energy costs.

Consumer prices in Europe's largest economy rose 0.2% on the month, pushing up the annual inflation rate to 1.3% this month from 1.2% in October, the federal statistics office said Thursday in a preliminary report.

Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected the annual rate to remain unchanged.

In European Union harmonized terms, consumer prices rose 0.2% on the month, pushing up the annual inflation rate to 1.6% in November from 1.2% in October, which is slightly higher than many economists had expected, but is still below the European Central Bank's target.

The ECB aims to keep inflation in the entire euro zone at just below 2% over the medium term.

Inflation figures have assumed a greater importance for investors after soft euro-area inflation for October had prompted the ECB to cut interest rates.

Evelyn Herrmann, an economist at BNP Paribas, forecast that German consumer price inflation will remain broadly stable next year.

"Domestic drivers, such as unit labor costs, will push up inflation somewhat. But that will be offset by the dis-inflationary trend elsewhere in the euro zone feeding through to German inflation via import prices," Ms. Herrmann said.

Any Money In There..?

Canada: Current Account (Q3) deficit at $15.47 billion

Canada's current account deficit narrowed modestly in the third quarter due to smaller gaps on trade in goods and services and investment income, following a shortfall in the prior three months that was sharply higher than originally estimated.

The deficit in the July through September period was a seasonally adjusted 15.47 billion Canadian dollars ($14.60 billion), from a revised C$15.92 billion in the second quarter--which was originally estimated at C$14.58 billion--Statistics Canada said Thursday. The revision was driven primary by higher payments on investment income to foreign investors.

The consensus call was for a C$14.4 billion shortfall in the third quarter, according to a report from Royal Bank of Canada.

The current account is the broadest indicator of trade in goods and services.

YOU NEED ONE EYE ONLY TO AIM AND HIT

And BOE's Carney aims and hits the mortgage lending in the U.K. and nudge banks towards lending more to small businesses.

Carney's explanation to reporters in London today was that ''This will help keep the housing ,market on a sustainable path and ensure the broader economy continues to receive the stimulus it needs, for as long as it needs, to sustain the recovery,''.

The pound rose and construction stocks fell as Carney unveiled changes to the central bank’s Funding for Lending Scheme that will mean it only applies to business lending from 2014 and will no longer be available for home loans.

Little evidence of immediate threat from housing

The revamp, announced in the BOE’s Financial Stability Report, comes after property researcher Acadametrics Ltd. said that house prices rose to a record last month, and Nationwide Building Society saw prices climbing from a year earlier at the fastest pace since 2010. The increase in demand has been partly fueled by a government incentive program known as Help to Buy, which aids buyers with small deposits.

In its analysis of the property market, the BOE said that house-price inflation has gathered momentum and activity has picked up, albeit from a low level. While it said there is “little evidence of an immediate threat to stability,” it warned that risks may build if there is a rapid increase in house prices and consumer indebtedness.

The British Pound has rallied sharply in the wake of this news, as it means that the BOE may be underestimating the pace of economic recovery, which could warrant tighter policy sooner than anticipated. Currently, the labor market is on pace to hit 7% unemployment by the fourth quarter of 2014, well-ahead of the three quarter 2015 estimate provided by the BOE in its Quarterly Inflation Report earlier this month.

Furthermore, the pound strengthened 0.4 percent to $1.6348 at 11:42 a.m. London time, while the FTSE 350 Household Goods & Home Construction Index fell 1.6 percent.

FEAR OF NEW BUBBLE..??

The Bank of England said Thursday it plans to cut its support for mortgage lending in the U.K. and nudge banks towards lending more to small businesses.

The move is a response to mounting concern that a rapid pickup in housing market activity in Britain could ultimately turn sour, hurting banks and borrowers, as well as longstanding worries that small firms are being starved of credit, hindering economic recovery.

It is also an example of the increasing willingness of central banks across the globe to deploy tailored policies to steer their economies, rather than relying solely on official interest rates.

The BOE said in its twice-yearly financial stability report that although there is little evidence that quickening activity in Britain's housing market poses an immediate threat to financial stability, "risks may grow if stronger activity is accompanied by further substantial and rapid increases in house prices and a further buildup in household indebtedness."

The central bank said property has played "a central role" in many previous economic and financial crises. In the U.K., real estate accounts for 70% of non-financial assets.

House prices in the U.K. have risen rapidly in recent months, prompting fears over the emergence of a new bubble in prices. A government mortgage-support program for would-be homebuyers called Help-to-Buy has driven an increase in mortgage lending, including a rise in the number of riskier loans on offer that require only a small downpayment.

The BOE said that in response to the pickup in housing-market activity and an ongoing dearth in small-business lending it has decided to overhaul its flagship Funding-for-Lending Scheme, or FLS, which offers banks cheap cash provided they use it to dish out loans to households and businesses.

Banks drawing on the FLS will from January no longer benefit from reduced capital requirements on new mortgage loans, the BOE said. Capital relief will continue for small business loans, however. Banks engaged in small business lending will also pay a smaller flat-rate fee of just 0.25% to use the FLS and will be able to draw more cash from the facility, the BOE added.

The changes were agreed with Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne.

"Now the housing market is starting to pick up, it is right that we focus the scheme's firepower on small businesses," Mr. Osborne said. BOE Gov. Mark Carney said extra support for mortgage lending is "no longer needed."

UK CONSUMERS QUESTION THE ECONOMY FOR A SECOND STRAIGHT MONTH

British consumers became less confident in November for the second consecutive month, figures from the European Commission showed Thursday, a development that could deepen concerns about the prospects for the U.K.'s economic revival, which has thus far relied on consumer spending.

The commission's survey of consumers in the U.K. resulted in a confidence gauge of -2.9 in November, down from -2.1 in October and -1.0 in September.

Prior to that, confidence levels had risen consistently since May, reflecting a recovery in the U.K. economy in the first nine months of the year that has placed it as one of the best-performing developed economies.

The recovery has been fueled by consumer spending, figures from the Office for National Statistics showed this week.

Evidence of worsening confidence during the first two months of the fourth quarter may raise concerns that consumer spending is faltering. A survey of British retailers this week also showed minimal sales growth in October and November.

Charts Update

EURAUD

Our preference: short below  as 1.4919 is resistance look for 1.47724

Alternative scenario: the downside breakout of 1.48747 would call for 1.480 1.447

Comment: the RSI is trading above 70. This could mean that either the pair is in a lasting up trend or just overbought and that therefore a correction could shape (look for bearish divergence in this case). The MACD is negative and below its signal line. The pair could retrace. Moreover, the pair is trading @ 55 MAs (respectively at 1.4880 and 1.481).
can could be looked at as Neutral to Up till 1.4847 is taken out from and ABC 

Euro-update

Euro-Zone Business Sentiment Higher November, Consumers Seem Less Sanguine

Confidence among euro-zone industrial firms edged higher for a seventh straight month in November but consumers aren't sharing their optimism, as figures Thursday from the European Commission confirmed the fall reported in the preliminary consumer confidence release last week.

The mixed outlook could mean the economic recovery will take time to strengthen as consumer spending is a key driver of growth. When confidence weakens, the desire to spend usually falls, too.

However, news that sentiment in some sectors continues to improve should help drive job creation, something that will help boost consumer confidence going forward.

The figures showed that economic sentiment--which measures the mood across both consumers and businesses--rose to 98.5 in November, the highest level since August 2011 and up from 97.7 in October.

The main driver of that rise came from the services and industry sectors, while retailers' outlook was marginally brighter in November than a month earlier. Confidence among consumers and construction firms fell.

The euro zone emerged from an 18-month-long recession in the second quarter of this year, but preliminary data for the third quarter were disappointing as growth fell back to just 0.1% from 0.3%.

T4X Trading Analysis

EURUSD

T4x Outlook: : Long positions above 1.3559 with targets @ 1.363 & 1.3655 in extension. above the Poseidon Medium line 

T4x Substitute Outlook : Below 1.3559 look for further downside with 1.3520 & 1.3486 as targets.

T4x  opinion : the pair is facing a pull back after the rally today on its support look for a possible rally

EURGBP

T4x Outlook: : Short positions below 0.8358 with targets @ 0.831 & 0.8285 in extension.

T4x Substitute Outlook : Above 0.8358 look for further upside with 0.8383 & 0.84 as targets.

T4x opinion t: the pair has broken below said support as planned and remains under pressure holding 0.8334 support

GBPUSD

T4x Outlook: Long positions above 1.6237 with targets @ 1.6335 & 1.6395 in extension.

T4x Substitute Outlook : Below 1.6237 look for further downside with 1.6195 & 1.616 as targets.

 T4x opinion t: the pair rallied pass the 161.8 expansion and has pulled back on its support ahead of a possible  rebound.

        

USDJPY

T4x Outlook: Long positions above 101.93 with targets @ 102.5 & 102.9 in extension.

T4x Substitute Outlook: Below 101.5 look for further downside with 101.15 & 100.95 as targets.

 T4x opinion : the pair has broken above resistance and should move for a further advance.

AUDUSD

Pivot: 0.9135

T4x Outlook: Short positions below 0.9071 with targets @ 0.8958 & 0.89 in extension.

T4x Substitute Outlook: Above 0.9135 look for further upside with 0.9205 & 0.925 as targets.

 T4x opinion : technically, the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50.

USOil      

 T4x Outlook: SHORT positions below 93.4 with 92.05 & 91.4 as next targets.

T4x Substitute Outlook: The upside penetration of 93.4 will call for 94.65 & 95.5.

 T4x opinion :  ABCD Move towards 91.71 100% expansion will we see a rise back towards 93.05

EIA Crude Oil Stock is a measure of change in crude oil storage and it's released by the Energy Information Administration.

 Actual 2.953m consensus  0.500 previous 0.375M

Trend: ST Ltd downside; MT Range

FTSE:100

T4x Outlook:As long as 6611 is not broken down, we favour an upmove with 6732 and then 6826 as next targets.

Alternative scenario: below 6611 expect a drop to 6566 and 6501

T4x Substitute Outlook: Price is below 55-day moving average suggests that the index still has potential to fall.

 T4x opinion : Consolidation with the potential to rise as it move out side the Poseidon trend line 

GOLD Daily 

Looking for a rally to sell 

GOLD 4HRS

T4x Outlook: SHORT positions below 1255 with 1226 & 1209 in sight.

T4x Substitute Outlook: The upside penetration of 1258 will call for a rebound towards 1279 & 1286.

 T4x opinion :as long as 1258 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

Trend: ST Bearish; MT Ltd downside