GERMAN INFLATION HIGHER THAN EXPECTATIONS

 German inflation was higher than expected in November, in annual terms, owing to price rises in the services sector and despite another drop in energy costs.

Consumer prices in Europe's largest economy rose 0.2% on the month, pushing up the annual inflation rate to 1.3% this month from 1.2% in October, the federal statistics office said Thursday in a preliminary report.

Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected the annual rate to remain unchanged.

In European Union harmonized terms, consumer prices rose 0.2% on the month, pushing up the annual inflation rate to 1.6% in November from 1.2% in October, which is slightly higher than many economists had expected, but is still below the European Central Bank's target.

The ECB aims to keep inflation in the entire euro zone at just below 2% over the medium term.

Inflation figures have assumed a greater importance for investors after soft euro-area inflation for October had prompted the ECB to cut interest rates.

Evelyn Herrmann, an economist at BNP Paribas, forecast that German consumer price inflation will remain broadly stable next year.

"Domestic drivers, such as unit labor costs, will push up inflation somewhat. But that will be offset by the dis-inflationary trend elsewhere in the euro zone feeding through to German inflation via import prices," Ms. Herrmann said.

Any Money In There..?

Canada: Current Account (Q3) deficit at $15.47 billion

Canada's current account deficit narrowed modestly in the third quarter due to smaller gaps on trade in goods and services and investment income, following a shortfall in the prior three months that was sharply higher than originally estimated.

The deficit in the July through September period was a seasonally adjusted 15.47 billion Canadian dollars ($14.60 billion), from a revised C$15.92 billion in the second quarter--which was originally estimated at C$14.58 billion--Statistics Canada said Thursday. The revision was driven primary by higher payments on investment income to foreign investors.

The consensus call was for a C$14.4 billion shortfall in the third quarter, according to a report from Royal Bank of Canada.

The current account is the broadest indicator of trade in goods and services.

YOU NEED ONE EYE ONLY TO AIM AND HIT

And BOE's Carney aims and hits the mortgage lending in the U.K. and nudge banks towards lending more to small businesses.

Carney's explanation to reporters in London today was that ''This will help keep the housing ,market on a sustainable path and ensure the broader economy continues to receive the stimulus it needs, for as long as it needs, to sustain the recovery,''.

The pound rose and construction stocks fell as Carney unveiled changes to the central bank’s Funding for Lending Scheme that will mean it only applies to business lending from 2014 and will no longer be available for home loans.

Little evidence of immediate threat from housing

The revamp, announced in the BOE’s Financial Stability Report, comes after property researcher Acadametrics Ltd. said that house prices rose to a record last month, and Nationwide Building Society saw prices climbing from a year earlier at the fastest pace since 2010. The increase in demand has been partly fueled by a government incentive program known as Help to Buy, which aids buyers with small deposits.

In its analysis of the property market, the BOE said that house-price inflation has gathered momentum and activity has picked up, albeit from a low level. While it said there is “little evidence of an immediate threat to stability,” it warned that risks may build if there is a rapid increase in house prices and consumer indebtedness.

The British Pound has rallied sharply in the wake of this news, as it means that the BOE may be underestimating the pace of economic recovery, which could warrant tighter policy sooner than anticipated. Currently, the labor market is on pace to hit 7% unemployment by the fourth quarter of 2014, well-ahead of the three quarter 2015 estimate provided by the BOE in its Quarterly Inflation Report earlier this month.

Furthermore, the pound strengthened 0.4 percent to $1.6348 at 11:42 a.m. London time, while the FTSE 350 Household Goods & Home Construction Index fell 1.6 percent.

FEAR OF NEW BUBBLE..??

The Bank of England said Thursday it plans to cut its support for mortgage lending in the U.K. and nudge banks towards lending more to small businesses.

The move is a response to mounting concern that a rapid pickup in housing market activity in Britain could ultimately turn sour, hurting banks and borrowers, as well as longstanding worries that small firms are being starved of credit, hindering economic recovery.

It is also an example of the increasing willingness of central banks across the globe to deploy tailored policies to steer their economies, rather than relying solely on official interest rates.

The BOE said in its twice-yearly financial stability report that although there is little evidence that quickening activity in Britain's housing market poses an immediate threat to financial stability, "risks may grow if stronger activity is accompanied by further substantial and rapid increases in house prices and a further buildup in household indebtedness."

The central bank said property has played "a central role" in many previous economic and financial crises. In the U.K., real estate accounts for 70% of non-financial assets.

House prices in the U.K. have risen rapidly in recent months, prompting fears over the emergence of a new bubble in prices. A government mortgage-support program for would-be homebuyers called Help-to-Buy has driven an increase in mortgage lending, including a rise in the number of riskier loans on offer that require only a small downpayment.

The BOE said that in response to the pickup in housing-market activity and an ongoing dearth in small-business lending it has decided to overhaul its flagship Funding-for-Lending Scheme, or FLS, which offers banks cheap cash provided they use it to dish out loans to households and businesses.

Banks drawing on the FLS will from January no longer benefit from reduced capital requirements on new mortgage loans, the BOE said. Capital relief will continue for small business loans, however. Banks engaged in small business lending will also pay a smaller flat-rate fee of just 0.25% to use the FLS and will be able to draw more cash from the facility, the BOE added.

The changes were agreed with Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne.

"Now the housing market is starting to pick up, it is right that we focus the scheme's firepower on small businesses," Mr. Osborne said. BOE Gov. Mark Carney said extra support for mortgage lending is "no longer needed."

UK CONSUMERS QUESTION THE ECONOMY FOR A SECOND STRAIGHT MONTH

British consumers became less confident in November for the second consecutive month, figures from the European Commission showed Thursday, a development that could deepen concerns about the prospects for the U.K.'s economic revival, which has thus far relied on consumer spending.

The commission's survey of consumers in the U.K. resulted in a confidence gauge of -2.9 in November, down from -2.1 in October and -1.0 in September.

Prior to that, confidence levels had risen consistently since May, reflecting a recovery in the U.K. economy in the first nine months of the year that has placed it as one of the best-performing developed economies.

The recovery has been fueled by consumer spending, figures from the Office for National Statistics showed this week.

Evidence of worsening confidence during the first two months of the fourth quarter may raise concerns that consumer spending is faltering. A survey of British retailers this week also showed minimal sales growth in October and November.

Charts Update

EURAUD

Our preference: short below  as 1.4919 is resistance look for 1.47724

Alternative scenario: the downside breakout of 1.48747 would call for 1.480 1.447

Comment: the RSI is trading above 70. This could mean that either the pair is in a lasting up trend or just overbought and that therefore a correction could shape (look for bearish divergence in this case). The MACD is negative and below its signal line. The pair could retrace. Moreover, the pair is trading @ 55 MAs (respectively at 1.4880 and 1.481).
can could be looked at as Neutral to Up till 1.4847 is taken out from and ABC 

Euro-update

Euro-Zone Business Sentiment Higher November, Consumers Seem Less Sanguine

Confidence among euro-zone industrial firms edged higher for a seventh straight month in November but consumers aren't sharing their optimism, as figures Thursday from the European Commission confirmed the fall reported in the preliminary consumer confidence release last week.

The mixed outlook could mean the economic recovery will take time to strengthen as consumer spending is a key driver of growth. When confidence weakens, the desire to spend usually falls, too.

However, news that sentiment in some sectors continues to improve should help drive job creation, something that will help boost consumer confidence going forward.

The figures showed that economic sentiment--which measures the mood across both consumers and businesses--rose to 98.5 in November, the highest level since August 2011 and up from 97.7 in October.

The main driver of that rise came from the services and industry sectors, while retailers' outlook was marginally brighter in November than a month earlier. Confidence among consumers and construction firms fell.

The euro zone emerged from an 18-month-long recession in the second quarter of this year, but preliminary data for the third quarter were disappointing as growth fell back to just 0.1% from 0.3%.

T4X Trading Analysis

EURUSD

T4x Outlook: : Long positions above 1.3559 with targets @ 1.363 & 1.3655 in extension. above the Poseidon Medium line 

T4x Substitute Outlook : Below 1.3559 look for further downside with 1.3520 & 1.3486 as targets.

T4x  opinion : the pair is facing a pull back after the rally today on its support look for a possible rally

EURGBP

T4x Outlook: : Short positions below 0.8358 with targets @ 0.831 & 0.8285 in extension.

T4x Substitute Outlook : Above 0.8358 look for further upside with 0.8383 & 0.84 as targets.

T4x opinion t: the pair has broken below said support as planned and remains under pressure holding 0.8334 support

GBPUSD

T4x Outlook: Long positions above 1.6237 with targets @ 1.6335 & 1.6395 in extension.

T4x Substitute Outlook : Below 1.6237 look for further downside with 1.6195 & 1.616 as targets.

 T4x opinion t: the pair rallied pass the 161.8 expansion and has pulled back on its support ahead of a possible  rebound.

        

USDJPY

T4x Outlook: Long positions above 101.93 with targets @ 102.5 & 102.9 in extension.

T4x Substitute Outlook: Below 101.5 look for further downside with 101.15 & 100.95 as targets.

 T4x opinion : the pair has broken above resistance and should move for a further advance.

AUDUSD

Pivot: 0.9135

T4x Outlook: Short positions below 0.9071 with targets @ 0.8958 & 0.89 in extension.

T4x Substitute Outlook: Above 0.9135 look for further upside with 0.9205 & 0.925 as targets.

 T4x opinion : technically, the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50.

USOil      

 T4x Outlook: SHORT positions below 93.4 with 92.05 & 91.4 as next targets.

T4x Substitute Outlook: The upside penetration of 93.4 will call for 94.65 & 95.5.

 T4x opinion :  ABCD Move towards 91.71 100% expansion will we see a rise back towards 93.05

EIA Crude Oil Stock is a measure of change in crude oil storage and it's released by the Energy Information Administration.

 Actual 2.953m consensus  0.500 previous 0.375M

Trend: ST Ltd downside; MT Range

FTSE:100

T4x Outlook:As long as 6611 is not broken down, we favour an upmove with 6732 and then 6826 as next targets.

Alternative scenario: below 6611 expect a drop to 6566 and 6501

T4x Substitute Outlook: Price is below 55-day moving average suggests that the index still has potential to fall.

 T4x opinion : Consolidation with the potential to rise as it move out side the Poseidon trend line 

GOLD Daily 

Looking for a rally to sell 

GOLD 4HRS

T4x Outlook: SHORT positions below 1255 with 1226 & 1209 in sight.

T4x Substitute Outlook: The upside penetration of 1258 will call for a rebound towards 1279 & 1286.

 T4x opinion :as long as 1258 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

Trend: ST Bearish; MT Ltd downside

T4X Trade Signal Update

ROCK SOLID TRADING TEAM 

GBPUSD

During the Europe session GBP/USD sold Off against the dollar for a 49 pip gain then just before the American session we sent out a signal to bank profits and bring stop loss to break even as there was American Data that we anticipated may have affected our position..

Which in the end the GBP rallied taken us out at break even with partial profits gained.

We still now may see the GBP give another Push towards 1.6220/25 failure here and  a break of the long term trend line will confirm a @ 162.20/25 correction and bring another push down in the pound.

 However we shall watch Mr Price for development.


USDCHF

With American Data Looming With scalped 15 pips with a risk free trade into the American Session
We were taken out at break even on the mixed to low confidence data from the US
With the break of Support at 0.9078. we now expect a small rally then further declines to 0.9023


EURUSD

EUR/USD has edged lower as we started the new trading week. The pair was trading in the low-1.35 range ionMonday’s... and Today the bears attempted to push the Euro Below the 55 Day moving average @ 1.3530. However with the The Consumer Confidence released by the Conference Board  which  captures the level of confidence that individuals have in economic activity in the US. Came out  lower

 @l 70.4 / consensus 72.9  previous 72.4 

The EURo Bulls pounced and took advantage and pushed the Euro back towards the Highs @ 1.3570 

The Rock Solid Trading team entered just before the american session banking 28pips on the pull down  with a risk free trade at break even in which we were stop out during the rest of the american session. 

a sustained break above  @ 1.3570  will ask the question of further highs with the Eur against the Dollar

EURGBP
 We quite Simple we believe the GBP is stronger than the EURO with an aggressive sell signal given @ 0.8376. accompanied with a tight stop Loss @ 0.8383 a break of 0.8365 B will support our case and bring a further decline towards the 1st Target @ 0.8334

Fridays oil after Iran News

Fridays oil  after Iran News

Oil prices fell early Monday after a ground breaking agreement aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear program eased tensions in the region and raised the prospect of more oil exports from the country.

However we expect that the deal has not be finalised and a speculative rally to challenge the highs may be on the cards back to 95.23 

However bring Your Stop Loss from 92.51 to break even when Possible