Dow Jones Daily
From Novembers Peak in 2013 the Dow Jones has continued to rally to new highs follwing our analysis we can count 5 of v waves up starting from December 20012 the again from July 2013 ending near 1685 and with tapering on the card and the possible tapering in government QE the trend could be in its final leg.
This could end any time from now and once it starts to turn we could be in for an important top being formed. Although conformation of the turn we be needed with the development of a 5 wave decline on the daily chart of break of near support would provide solid evidence that a top has been formed and we shall look for this i the near future around these prices.
While the Dow Jones has put in an amazing performance the T-note yields has jumped 78% and bonds fell. with optimism towards stocks and the economy is running high across the board, With the raging bulls flying high with the bears no where to be seen. This could prove costly as we start 2014.
As of today the Dow has been lifted by health care stocks on Tuesday 7/01/2014. UnitedHealth Group, the nation’s biggest health insurer, and Johnson & Johnson both rose after analyst’s raised their recommendations on the stocks.
It
rose 105.84 points or 0.64 percent, to end at 16,530.94. The S&P 500 gained
11.11 points or 0.61 percent, to finish at 1,837.88. The Nasdaq Composite added
39.501 points or 0.96 percent, to close at 4,153.182.
S&P 500 Daily
The Standard & Poor’s rose for the first time this year after slumping for three straight days, its worst start to a year since 2005.
I can count 5 wave up ending @ 1867.3 with the break out from the rising trend line Guppy moving average indicating a string trend up. with no real sign of letting up yet.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 index gained 11.11 points, or 0.6 percent, to 1,837.88.
With the S&P 500 , rising 0.61 percent to 1837.88 as investors showed
confidence in this Friday’s job report and fourth-quarter earnings beginning to
be announced,traders took profits in the wake of 2013's rally that
drove the benchmark index up nearly 30 percent.
Last year, the U.S.
stock market reached all-time highs and saw its biggest percentage gains since
1997, but the first three trading days of 2014 saw some downward movement in
stock prices on the S&P 500.
A sharp decline in the U.S.
trade deficit and upbeat German data helped improve market sentiment as the
data pointed to strengthening economic fundamentals in both the United States
and Europe.
"One way or the other,
(the data) is all pointing to the story about how it might still be tough, but
things are starting to point to better days ahead," said Ken Polcari,
director of the NYSE floor division at O'Neil Securities in New York.
HOURLY chart S&P 500
Tomorrow, the U.S. Federal Reserve will release its latest minutes. The minutes should offer traders key reasons why the central bank voted to taper and may reveal future plans for the reduction of monetary stimulus. Speculators are said to have already priced in another $10 billion reduction at the end of January.
Finally, on Friday, the U.S. will release the December Non-Farm Payrolls report. This report should determine whether the central bank cuts another $10 billion from its stimulus budget. Analysts say the economy added 190,000 new jobs. Less than 150,000 could convince the Fed to refrain from another taper. This could cause uncertainty for traders, creating volatile trading conditions.
FTSE 100 Daily
The FTSE 100 index rose 0.4% to end at 6,755.45 after the index closed slightly higher on Monday. In the banking sector, Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG) rose 3% and HSBC Holdings PLC (HSBC) gained 2.4%. Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC (RBS) rose 1.8% and Barclays PLC (BCS) gained 1.2%.
U.K. data showed new car sales surging 11% in 2013 versus 2012, the best year since pre-recession 2007, said the U.K. Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders. Sales for December rose 24%, the 22nd-straight monthly rise.
With ABC Decline in the FTSE 100 completing II a possible break out of the Highs is on the card for the FTSE 100 which will indicate and confirm a rally in wave ii according to our count.
With the FTSE maintaining the rising trend line with still positive out comes across the Atlantic things seem to be looking good for the UK see chart and news from Uk stocks
in addition
FTSE 100
Britain's blue chip share
index touched a one-week high on Tuesday, with gains in financial stocks
pushing the FTSE 100 towards major technical resistance levels and
overshadowing weakness in retailers.
Lloyds was the top gainer,
rising 2.4 percent, as investors bought the stock on expectations the bank will
start paying dividends this year, and that it will benefit from a recovering
British economy and housing market. Lloyds is expected to announce a payout to
shareholders on its 2013 results, with StarMine consensus pointing to a
dividend yield of 0.4 percent this year, rising to 3.1 percent next year."Lloyds
is a domestic story - if the property market is going to do well, then the
leverage you get out of Lloyds is great, plus they are going to pay a dividend
this year, so the income funds will be buying them," said ZegChoudhry,
head of equities trading at Northland Capital.
Bolstering the British
economic recovery story, car sales rose to their highest level since 2007 last
year, data showed on Tuesday, while British businesses reported strong growth
and rising confidence.
Analysts at Bernstein
Research highlighted Lloyds as the top pure play on UK consumers, while noting
that RBS looks promising on valuation and that HSBC is likely to increase its
risk appetite in the region.RBS shares rose 1.3 percent, while HSBC - the
biggest constituent in the FTSE 100 - added 1.5 percent.
The gains helped boost the
overall index, which was up 31.62 points, or 0.5 percent, at 6,762.35 points by
1149 GMT, closing in on its Dec. 30 high of 6,768.44 points."Technical
studies are generally constructive across the daily/weekly/monthly time
frames," said Ed Blake, technical analyst at Informa Global Markets.
"Only a failure to
clear 6,768.44 followed by a return through 6,699.27 would caution bulls and
risk a deeper near-term corrective setback."However, for now, overall FTSE
100 gains were capped by weakness in retailers, many of whom are due to issue
trading updates later this week.
a smaller up in 1 and pull back in 2 shows higher lows in the FTSE and as long as the index maintains this structure we will stay bullish. when and if Price decides to turn lower over the Guppy short faster moving averages will being to waver crossing back below the longer term moving averages
Support services group Ashtead gained 14p at 804p, helped by Jefferies Group raising the price target from 880p to 900p.
Upgrades from Jefferies also underpinned progress for the broadcasters, with BSkyB adding 4.5p at 840.5p and ITV 0.2p better at 197.9p.
Low-cost airline easyJet moved up 8p to 1,605p after reporting it carried 4,490,538 passengers in December, 3.5% up on a year ago. IAG, which reported that premium traffic for the month of December increased by 7.3% compared to the previous year, rose 14.2p to 428.2p.
Lloyds outperformed in the banking sector, topping the leaderboard with a gain of 2.4p to 82.51p, with Asia-facing HSBC up 15.8p at 675.8p and Barclays 3.45p higher at 280.95p, while Royal Bank of Scotland added 6.1p at 350.4p.
Supermarket operator Sainsbury, which provides a trading update on Wednesday, edged up 1.1p to 368.9p, while Tesco, which produces numbers on Thursday, eased 0.45p to 331.75p and Marks & Spencer eked out a gain of 0.8p to 441.1p.
Staying in the retail sector, fashion house Next suffered at the hands of profit-takers, down 40p to 6,130p, although HSBC upgraded the shares to overweight from neutral and hiked its target price to 6,880p from 5,610p.
Miners were mostly lower, with Rio Tinto losing 51p at 3,215p. Vedanta Resources fell 13p to 876.5p and Antofagasta was 6.5p lower at 780.5p.
Severn Trent slipped 37p to 1,667p when JP Morgan Cazenove downgraded the waste and water firm to underweight from neutral.
Royal Mail Group dropped 11p to 561p as Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage on the FTSE100 newcomer with a sell recommendation and 500p target price.
Energy industry service group AMEC eased 5p to 1,081p, despite announcing it has been awarded a £255m renewed contract by the Kuwait Oil Company to provide project management consultancy services.
Story provided by StockMarketWire.com
DAX30
The DAX has formed a path way of five wave up since the early march 2013 and an ideal target for wave 5 is 3584 or 3734 a range filled with common Elliott wave relationship.
with German shares reaching there upper limit this combination of fundamentals and technical analysis can prove to be a powerful argument that the trend could be nearing its end or at minimum , expecting a decline large than the the two previous pull backs in june and September 2013
The German DAX 30 index
DX:DAX +0.83% rose 0.8% to 9,506.20
after data showed seasonally adjusted jobless claims in the country falling
15,000 to 2.97 million in December, which was better than expected. German
retail sales also came in better than expected, with a November preliminary
rise of 1.5%. “If Germany can show an improving labor market, it gives hope to
the region overall, although all bar Germany have substantial reform to
undertake if they are to match German efficiency,” said Stephen Pope, managing
partner at Spotlight Ideas, in emailed comments.
European stocks also rose
after data showed euro-zone inflation falling in December further below the
European Central Bank’s target.Tom Rogers, senior economic adviser to the EY
Eurozone Forecast, said the central bank will “need to remain alert to the risk
of deflation, and following Thursday’s governing council meeting, be prepared
to respond to increased speculation over which policy tools it might use to try
and address falling prices.”
With Investor looking forward to today minutes by the FED and Friday's US Jobs report for December for there possible indication for a reduction in the FED QE
CAC40 Daily
German unemployment fell in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, the first drop since July, the country's Labour Office confirmed. The number of people out of work fell by 15,000 to 2.965 million, the biggest decrease in two years.
CAC 40
The French CAC 40 index FR:PX1 +0.83% rose 0.8% to 4,262.68, with banks such as Credit Agricole SA FR:ACA +6.08% soaring 6.1%, BNP Paribas SA FR:BNP +2.87% up nearly 3% and SocieteGenerale SA FR:GLE +4.03% gaining 4%. Shares of Total SA FR:FP +1.08% TOT +0.13% rose 1.1% as the oil sector gained amid strong energy prices.
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